Moneyball FM: Part 2 – What’s Going Don?

I’ve set my moneyball rules, chosen my new home in Milton Keynes, and my first task as I walk through the club’s door is to mine the masses of data available to me. I want, and need, to understand what caused this team to drop out of League One last season, and the areas of play that will require improvement. Before we dive into the realities of my new club, though, here’s a quick reminder of our moneyball rules:

1. Always improve the weakest area of the team first
2. Promote youth ahead of buying players
3. Improve defence before attack
4. Only buy players aged 21-25, with decent data sample size
5. Don’t buy strikers unless absolutely necessary
6. Shop outside the usual markets
7. Sell players at their peak age
8. Always be scouting for replacements
9. Sell any player if a club offers more than they are worth

Great expectations

I don’t tend to follow lower league football in real life, so I am surprised to see that the Dons were only predicted to finish 19th at the start of the season.

Clearly they underperformed to end up in the drop zone, but the board are expecting an immediate bounce back. They’re either confident or delusional – time will tell.

I’m delighted to see this level of ambition from the club’s board. The expectation for continual progress – promotion to the Championship within just three years – is already the vision I have in my own mind.

I’m also immediately excited by the club’s culture. Attacking football; possession football; entertaining football; develop youth players. This is all music to my ears.

Then I remember that Rule 3 is to improve defence ahead of attack. Hmmm…

The financial situation at the club is odd, however. The selection screen says that our finances are Okay, yet one of the board’s expectations is to reduce the club’s financial damage. What does that mean?

13.9 million pounds in debt?! How the hell did they manage that?!

I have to be honest, this makes me feel distinctly uneasy. Moneyball is based on financial prudence, but we’re expected to pay £47k per month back to the bank and the chairman. Do I not like the sound of that.

Surely that massive stadium must be bringing in the crowds though? Nope. Last season we averaged less than 7,600 fans per game in the league, when our capacity is over 30,000. Clearly I need to give the fans something to sing about. And fast.

Meet the team

What about the squad? They lined up in a 5-2-2-1 formation for most of last season, which bodes well. Given Rule 3’s defence-first requirement, I was planning to go five-at-the-back anyway and the players should find it easier to adapt to my system if they’ve played in a similar way before.

I don’t think the defence will require a huge amount of work either. A quick look at the detail shows that, despite being in the bottom four, 13 of the teams that finished above MK Dons conceded more goals. This back line is by no means dreadful.

I’m not convinced by the narrow forward line though.

Only five teams scored fewer goals last season. And form is clearly a major issue – look at the downward slide since the start of the season.

This situation poses some immediate challenges for my moneyball rules. Rule 5 clearly states that I should avoid buying strikers unless absolutely necessary – they are over valued and over-priced. But with such a poor goal scoring record, it already appears that a new forward or two might already be absolutely necessary.

Before I jump to conclusions, let’s dive deeper into the data…

Show me the numbers

A look at the XG Against figures reaffirm my early thoughts about the back line. They’re great at tackling:

They’re fantastic at interceptions:

They are a little bit on the dirty side though.

Based on the quality of chances given away, MK Dons had the sixth best defence in the division. I’m confident I won’t have too much work to do on that front.

Unsurprisingly, things are somewhat less impressive when I look at the attacking statistics. Taking the positives first, we topped the list for pass completion. This will be a massive help when it comes to the possession-based football the board is expecting.

And despite being such poor scorers, our Expected Goals was actually in the top half for the division. We weren’t too bad at creating chances – putting them away was the problem.

So what caused that? Two main factors: we struggled to create strong chances with a high likelihood of a goal, and didn’t force the goalkeeper to make anywhere near enough saves.

Note to self – definitely need to buy a decent striker.

Incredibly, despite this backdrop of tough tackling, poor attacking and relegation, MK Dons had the best player in the league last season:

This guy has ridiculous quality for a fourth division player, and his market value is incredible. He’s already being watched by a couple of championship clubs so I expect Rule 9 to kick in any day now.

In fact I’ve barely got as far as setting up my desk when Fraser knocks on the door demanding a transfer. A player of his quality would be incredible to have in League Two but this is moneyball.

I tell Fraser I have no problem with him leaving as long as I find a replacement first. I have 93 days until the transfer window closes. No pressure.

Join me next time for part three, where we’ll check out the quality of the backroom team. Looking at that strike force’s output last year, I really hope I have some quality scouts on the books.